Student loan outlay forecasts
The DfE student loan outlay model and Advanced Learner Loans model forecast the amount that the Department for Education expects to lend to students taking out loans via the Student Loans Company (SLC).
- Plan 1 loans the loan system for students that started courses before that are eligible for undergraduate student support funding, consisting of fee loans and maintenance loans.
- Plan 2 full-time higher education loans the loan system for students on full-time courses that started since that are eligible for undergraduate student support funding, consisting of fee loans and maintenance loans.
- Plan 2 part-time higher education loans the loan system for students on part-time courses that are eligible for undergraduate student support funding. These first became available in , consisting of a tuition fee loan. Since maintenance loans are also available for some part-time students.
- Advanced Learner Loans a fee loan available to further education learners who meet the eligibility criteria. These were introduced in and are on the Plan 2 repayment system.
- Postgraduate master’s loans loans available to master’s students to help cover fees and living costs. They were introduced in and are on the Plan 3 repayment system.
- Postgraduate de available to d to help cover fees and living costs. They are on the Plan 3 repayment system.
Table 3a and 3b show the student loan outlay forecast by loan product for the financial years 2020-21 to 2025-26.
The following loan products are available:
Total student loan outlay is forecast to increase from ?19.1 billion in 2020-21 to ?22.1 billion in 2025-26, in nominal terms. Loan outlay is expected to remain relatively stable between 2020-21 and 2021-22, due to the forecast decline in EU entrants, followed by annual increases in student loan outlay, which are expected to peak at 4.3% in financial year 2023-24.
Some of this forecast increase is as a result of several changes made to the student loans policy by Government. Maintenance grants were replaced with maintenance loans for new entrants from academic year , and new nursing, midwifery and most allied health entrants from became eligible for student loans for financial support in place of receiving NHS bursaries. These changes will lead to increases in loan outlay each year until the new policy applies to students in all course years. The introduction of master’s loans in , and doctoral loans and maintenance loans for part-time higher education students in are also expected to lead to further increases. The increase in the total student loan outlay forecast from 2023-24 to 2025-26 is driven by assumed inflationary increases in the Plan 2 fee and maintenance loans.
No Plan 1 loan outlay is forecast as these loans are payday loans North Carolina only available to students who started courses prior to and modelling assumes all students receive a maximum of 6 years of support from when they start their course. However, there are some exceptional cases where students may still be paid a Plan 1 loan later than this, e.g. if they had suspended their studiesplete information on the student finance arrangements in England can be found at:
The slight decrease in Plan 2 Higher education fee loan outlay from 2020-21 to 2021-22 is driven by the forecasted decline in EU domiciled entrants between the academic years and and their average fee loan amounts being higher than those of England domiciled entrant borrowers. Loan-eligible EU domiciled students are entitled to fee loans only, which is why Plan 2 Higher education maintenance loan outlay forecast does not decrease between these years. Forecast increases in Plan 2 Higher education loan outlay from 2022-23 onwards are due to forecasted increases in Plan 2 entrants eligible for loans and the increase in average loan amounts in line with forecast RPIX inflation.
